I suppose New York is not really part of the United States. Here we had better weather in December.

A record snowy winter.
A record rainy spring.
Now what???

A new White Stripes record?

That is truely terrible...the necklace more than anything, though the stolen BC in our post 911 world is going to be a real PITA to replace..also notify credit agencies to be prepared for identity theft.

YES
Interest rates going up more.
Next recession (betting on late 2006) will cause sag on housing prices.

PS and fair warning - I am NOT an economist

Not clear why this is a reason not to do it.

The reason not to selct an adjustable rate mortgage is that every economic indicator is predicting a rise in interest rates...so while they call it "adjustable" it really means "going up". An ARM is a good choice only if you are expecting a significant increase in your income over the next 5 years..( ie, finishing a degree program now and will be getting a full time high paying position in 3 yrs)

And, when the bubble bursts, whatever equity you currently have in your property will shrink, or even disappear...but your payments will increase, without making much of a dent in your principal.

warning, I am a Realtor, not an economist, and loan packages are different state to state, so this is just an opinion. If you can get anything under 6%, refinance w/ a conventional, and act soon...HE loans are already tightening up, and I had two clients this week NOT get a mortgage from their first choice lender.

I think it's a mistake any time you get into negative amortization--whether by choice or not. Just my opinion.

So much of this is dependent on what you paid, where you live, etc. Most good mortgage brokers will have a number of equations that they can pop your numbers into, and you can see the best and worst case scenario's of each program. Just be prepared to incur a tremendous jump at the end of your ARM term, and factor that into your decision. 5yrs at 3.5% and 3 years at 10%....( I'm not sure if your ARM has a cap..most do, but they are often compounded) still averages out to nearly 6% I would refer you to one of the brokers I work with and really trust to give my clients great advice..but they are not licensed in NY.

And, even after the financials are computed, you need to think what will work for your family...The benefits of owning instead of renting are that you can build equity, and then flip that equity into a nicer, better, larger, whatever new home...If you limit your hard equity in your home, you are dependent on market values to build equity ( this is "soft" equity..its not money in the bank, its money in the market, and again, predictions are this will greatly slow down.) Plus, you need to factor in your tax rates, and how the interest payments on your home effect your bottom line.

( personal story: bought a triplex loft at the Eagle Warehouse in Brooklyn Heights in 1987. Sold it in 1995. Had to bring a check for 30k to the closing...ouch. )

Not if the interest rate rises to 10%, I'd guess. (Not that I'm suggesting it will.)

No gloating please.

Depending on whom you believe the bubble in LA real estate is about to burst. Just save your money and hold on. Could be 6 months. Could be 18 months. But some expect prices to fall by as much as 30%. Of course, interest rates will be higher, but you buy and then get ready to refi when the rates go down. It's not a rational way to do things, but it's the way we do them.

I prefer to ask "WW Dubya Do?

I was hoping for the massive earthquake that never happened.

I'm not gloating. If I sell I get $250,000 tax free pay capital gains on the rest and have to move to some shithole town out of state without a decent wine store. Girlfriend and I can't ever marry cause of the tax consequences. So we visit each other a lot. Still it is Sonoma Ca, land of high everything prices.

do you have to pay capital gains if you reinvest in property?

Depends how long you take. Is it 18 or 24 months.

What kind of thing?

this

This what?

that too

I see.

Where is it?

Where is what?

Nevermind, I can see it now.

Do you have trompe l'oeil vision?

Excellent. Let's keep it going.

Isn't it time to think outside the box?